A recent analysis by economic experts Zoran Drakulić, Boško Mijatović, Danica Popović and Dejan Šoškić concludes that the Jadar Project should be halted. The assessment is presented as a response to claims by the Serbian government about the project’s economic benefits. The experts say the projected advantages are overstated.
The analysis estimates that Serbia would receive only €17.4 million annually, which it equates to €2.6 per capita. It also cites significant economic and financial risks associated with the project. On that basis, the experts argue the arrangement is unjustifiable.
Infrastructure, ownership, and remediation responsibilities
The experts say Serbia would bear the full cost of infrastructure development for the Jadar Project. They estimate these infrastructure expenses at several hundred million euros, including roads, railways and utilities. They add that these investments would benefit Rio Tinto, described as the project’s operator.
The analysis also states that Serbia would not hold any ownership stake in the Jadar Project. It says Rio Tinto would retain full control over lithium extraction, while Serbia would receive minimal direct returns. The experts frame this as a key factor in their assessment of expected benefits.
Environmental risk is another element highlighted in the analysis. It states that in the event of an ecological disaster, including flooding or tailings spills, Serbia would be responsible for remediation costs. Those costs are described as potentially reaching hundreds of millions of euros.
Subsidies for InoBat battery factory and potential revenue offsets
The analysis points to planned state support for an electric battery factory linked to InoBat. It says the government intends to provide €419 million in subsidies to a relatively unknown Slovak company. The experts cite a lack of guarantees and transparency regarding InoBat’s ability to deliver.
Regarding revenue projections, the analysis references a Rio Tinto report cited by President Vučić. It states that the project could generate €1 billion in annual revenue. The experts argue that much of this figure would be offset by costs of goods and services, with benefits flowing mainly to foreign suppliers rather than Serbia.
Rio Tinto returns versus projected Serbian receipts
The analysis says Rio Tinto is expected to realize a net profit of €11.4 billion. It also states that the company’s return on its €2.55 billion investment is anticipated within five years. The experts describe this as enabling Rio Tinto to recoup risks early and profit significantly later in the project.
For Serbia, the analysis estimates projected annual revenues at €184.5 million. It says mining royalties and fees would not exceed €40 million annually, while corporate income tax might contribute around €85 million. The experts also emphasize that Serbia would need to cover preparatory infrastructure work costs for the project’s viability.
Lithium price assumptions and projected best-case impact uncertainty
The analysis challenges an underlying market assumption used in project planning. It disputes the idea that lithium carbonate would maintain an average selling price of $15,600 per ton throughout the project’s duration. The authors describe this projection as overly optimistic.
The assessment notes that lithium prices have fallen by 81% in just two years. It concludes that the economic impact on Serbia is highly uncertain and could approach zero in the best-case scenario. The experts reiterate that they consider suspending the Jadar Project justified based on their findings.