The shift toward renewable energy is expected to increase demand for critical minerals and metals including lithium, copper, manganese, and rare earth elements. Over the past five years, the market for these materials has doubled. Projections also indicate that demand for critical minerals used in clean energy technologies could rise by two to four times by 2040.
Mining activity is expected to increase as countries expand renewable energy systems. The total extraction required to support a green energy future by 2040 is described as substantially less than what is needed to sustain a fossil-fuel-based energy system. Fossil fuels require continuous, non-recyclable supply flows for combustion, while critical minerals in renewable technologies can be installed in equipment with long lifespans and can be recycled at the end of those lifecycles.
Even where renewable deployment reduces the need for continuous extraction over time, metals mined for these technologies are expected to be sourced responsibly. The focus on responsible sourcing is linked to the environmental and social impacts associated with mining operations.
Copper demand outlook and projected supply needs
Copper is highlighted among critical minerals due to its extensive use and conductive properties for electrification technologies. Forecasts cited in the source material expect annual copper demand to increase from 25 million tonnes to 55.1 million tonnes by 2050 under a 1.5°C climate scenario. Meeting this projected demand is described as requiring new copper sources.
The distribution of copper reserves is presented as relatively broad across terrestrial locations. Copper reserves are listed in Chile at 23.6%, Peru at 10%, the Democratic Republic of Congo at 10%, China at 8.6%, and the United States at 5.9%.
In the short term, these countries are expected to remain primary suppliers because establishing new mining operations often takes over a decade. At the same time, processing capacity is described as able to expand more quickly and diversify geographically.
Regional initiatives and partnerships for new mining capacity
The source material says that the United States and the European Union are launching initiatives aimed at developing domestic mining operations. It also states that they are forming strategic partnerships intended to strengthen new supply chains.
This approach is positioned alongside expectations that near-term copper supply will continue to rely on existing reserve locations. Diversifying processing capacity is described as a way to adjust supply timelines relative to mine development.
Environmental risks from extraction and tailings incidents
Mining is described as having significant environmental impacts, including land disruption, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem damage. The extraction process requires substantial water use and can generate harmful waste referred to as tailings.
The source material cites catastrophic tailings dam failures in Brazil, including Samarco in 2015 and Brumadinho in 2019. These incidents are described as causing severe damage to human and environmental health.
The impacts are also framed as linked to where mining occurs within specific regions rather than being evenly distributed. Most mining operations are said to be located within or near Indigenous territories or local communities.
Indigenous lands, community impacts, and a copper mine shutdown
The source material states that over 50% of the metals required for the renewable energy transition are located on or near Indigenous lands. It emphasizes that ensuring health and safety, providing employment opportunities, and protecting rights of local and Indigenous communities are crucial considerations.
It also notes that failure to address these concerns can lead to opposition from affected communities. An example provided is the shutdown of the Cobre Panama copper mine in November 2023.
The shutdown is attributed in the source material to protests involving environmentalists, students, Indigenous groups, and labor activists.
Standards for responsible mining and reporting frameworks
The source material describes responsible practices as essential to mitigate negative mining impacts. It says this includes robust internal management systems, strong corporate governance, and processes for dialogue and grievance resolution.
Recognized standards are presented as another key step toward responsible mining. The Mining Association of Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM) program addresses biodiversity, climate change, crisis management, mine closure, and relations with Indigenous and local communities.
The source material also cites the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA), described as being implemented in South America and Africa through a multi-stakeholder board. It further references CopperMark, an independent assurance framework covering responsible practices across copper, molybdenum, nickel, and zinc value chains.
While standards differ in specifics, they share an aim of improving mining practices worldwide. Transparency and reporting are described as fundamental elements, with new guidelines such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) standard for mining intended to support this process.
Supply chain transparency and engagement by metal users
The source material says end users can contribute by increasing supply chain transparency and promoting sustainable practices. It notes encouragement for companies to increase use of recycled materials and support research and development of innovative solutions.
Ørsted and Teck are cited as organizations actively engaging across sectors and parts of the value chain to enhance responsible mining practices.
The material concludes that ensuring responsible sourcing of critical minerals is described as paramount during the transition toward renewable energy systems. It links this requirement to sustainability-focused approaches in mining without adding further quantified details beyond those already stated.