Rio Tinto has increased its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal 2025 and forecasted higher copper production, with growth expected to be driven largely by Mongolian operations. The company said it projects a 50% output surge from its Mongolian assets. Rio Tinto also forecast a 3% compound annual growth rate from 2024 onward across its operations.
The company reported that its profits are mainly derived from iron ore, while it is directing additional emphasis toward copper. Rio Tinto said copper demand is expected to rise alongside the global transition to renewable energy. It set a target of reaching 1 million metric tons of annual copper production by 2030.
Copper and iron ore projects highlighted in growth strategy
CEO Jakob Stausholm linked Rio Tinto’s expansion plans to multiple projects across different commodities. He said the company is ramping up the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine in Mongolia. Stausholm also cited progress on the Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea and expansion of its lithium business through the proposed Arcadium acquisition.
Rio Tinto raised its overall capital expenditure forecast for fiscal 2025 to $11 billion, which it described as $1 billion higher than previously anticipated. The company said this compares with $9.5 billion in 2024. It stated that the increased investment will support projects including Simandou.
The company said Simandou is expected to begin production in late 2025 and contribute around 5% of global seaborne supply. Rio Tinto plans to allocate $6.2 billion to Simandou development, with a significant portion directed toward port and rail infrastructure. The company characterized Simandou as the world’s largest new iron ore mine.
Lithium expansion includes Arcadium deal and Argentina start-up
Rio Tinto also outlined moves into lithium production alongside its copper and iron ore plans. In October, it agreed to acquire lithium producer Arcadium for $6.7 billion. The company said the deal would make it the world’s third-largest lithium producer.
The Arcadium acquisition is described as part of Rio Tinto’s effort to strengthen its position in the electric vehicle battery supply chain. Separately, Rio Tinto said its Rincon lithium project in Argentina achieved first production last week. It also noted that the Jadar lithium project in Serbia faces environmental protests.
Rio Tinto said Jadar could experience delays of at least two years before securing necessary permits. The company did not provide additional details on the permitting timeline beyond that estimate. It also did not specify any changes to project scope related to the protests.
Copper output forecast and decarbonisation spending range
For fiscal 2025, Rio Tinto forecast higher copper output, estimating production of 780,000–850,000 tons. This would be an increase from 660,000–720,000 tons in the previous year. The company tied broader production expectations to Mongolian operations.
In parallel with its commodity-focused investment plans, Rio Tinto said it is maintaining its decarbonisation capital expenditure budget at the lower end of a $5 billion–$6 billion range through 2030. It said this follows a reduction from an earlier estimate of $7.5 billion. The company did not provide further breakdowns of how those funds would be allocated.
Share performance and listing dispute with activist investor
Rio Tinto’s shares have fallen during the current year, according to figures cited by the company. The decline was reported as 12% in Sydney and 14% in London. On Wednesday, activist investor Palliser Capital urged Rio Tinto to scrap its primary listing in London.
Palliser Capital also called for Rio Tinto to unify its corporate structure in Australia. Palliser claimed that the dual listing has led to a loss of about $50 billion in shareholder value. CEO Jakob Stausholm responded that the company has yet to see compelling evidence that its current structure is not optimal.